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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."